Using the I Ching to Interpret International Politics: Hexagram “Waiting” — The Hidden Waiting Game Behind the U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Agreement

Story Background: Why Does This Card Speak?

Hexagram 5 — XU Gua, also known as “The Waiting Game,” shows an image of dark clouds gathering in the sky (symbolizing opportunity) over cracked, dry earth (symbolizing crisis).

This perfectly captures the essence of the 2025 U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement — a moment heavy with potential, yet shadowed by deep uncertainty.

Quick News Overview

On May 1, 2025, the U.S. and Ukraine signed the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund Agreement (commonly referred to as the “Minerals Agreement”). While the agreement publicly promotes “equal cooperation,” beneath the surface lies a strategic struggle for resource control:

• Resource Control: Ukraine retains formal ownership of its mineral resources, but the U.S. gains development rights through a 50:50 investment fund. Every new mining license Ukraine issues will funnel 50% of the revenue directly into the fund, and all projects must be jointly approved by both sides.
• Debt Trap Concerns: Although the agreement omits an earlier clause about “priority debt repayment to the U.S.,” it stipulates that all fund revenues for the first 10 years must go toward “reconstruction”—with the U.S. determining the direction. American firms may recoup investments by contracting reconstruction projects.
• Technology Lock-in: The U.S. offers mining technology (e.g., from ExxonMobil and Chevron), but Ukraine must allow American companies to take equity in each project, creating deep strategic entanglement.
• Ukraine’s Dilemma: War has slashed Ukraine’s GDP by 30%, left it with a $20 billion fiscal deficit, and made it heavily dependent on U.S. military aid. In the end, Ukraine had little choice but to sign.

1. Hexagram Structure: A “Hunger Game” of the Powerful

• Lower trigram Qian (☰ – Heaven): Represents the U.S., strong and assertive — like a pay-to-win player in a game, using capital and tech as “cheat codes” to control the rules.
• Upper trigram Kan (☵ – Water): Represents Ukraine, trapped in the swamp of war (Kan symbolizes danger), like a low-HP character needing an emergency resource pack to survive.
• The hexagram text says, “Favorable to cross great rivers.” On the surface, it sounds like win-win cooperation, but in reality, the U.S. is “crossing the river” to seize control of the resource chain — while Ukraine is forced to risk it all just to stay alive.

2. Line Texts as “Trap Stages” in the Agreement

• Line 1: “Waiting in the outskirts” — Ukraine, stuck on the battlefield’s edge, waits for aid. The 10-year revenue freeze is like a delayed DLC: it helps in the short term but sacrifices long-term autonomy.
• Line 3: “Waiting in the mud; robbers arrive” — U.S. demands equity in exchange for tech. Like a swamp filled with landmines: the deeper Ukraine relies on U.S. companies, the greater the risk to its sovereignty.
• Line 6: “Entering a cave; unexpected guests arrive” — Russia plays the role of the surprise “boss monster.” If a U.S.-Russia side deal emerges, Ukraine could end up the expendable pawn.

3. Changing Hexagram Warning: A “Game Over” Risk for the U.S.

If XU Gua changes into Wei Ji (未濟 – Hexagram 64: Before Completion), it warns of potential collapse:

• Ukraine’s rare earth extraction is costly, and many mines lie in Russian-occupied zones. The U.S.’s $300 million investment may sink with no return.
• China controls 80% of global rare earth refining. Even if the U.S. mines the ore, it may still need to send it to Qingdao for processing — ultimately, digging for someone else’s benefit.

Conclusion: Patience or Predation?

Hexagram 5 reminds us that “true victory belongs to those who wait with strength.”

But for Ukraine, this agreement feels more like “a cancer patient selling a kidney to afford chemotherapy” — a desperate bid for short-term survival that risks long-term subjugation as a resource vassal.

And if the U.S. overreaches in greed, it may trigger the backlash of Hexagram 64 – Before Completion, risking another geopolitical misfire — a replay of the Afghanistan debacle.

Read More Interpretations：Hexagram 5: Xū (Waiting)